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2026-27 points-league draft guide

Busts and Fades

Players the experts would let someone else draft at their current price. When another outlet makes the counter-argument, we show it too.

  1. 1

    LeBron James

    SF/PF · PHI

    Career-low 20.9 PTS in 60 games · 26.2% usage · turns 42 in December

    The most-named fade of the preseason. He's the fourth or fifth option on a loaded Sixers roster next to Embiid, Maxey and Jaylen Brown, he has arthritis and sciatica, and 35+ missed games is in play. His ADP is around 37.

    ADP #37Our projections #40Boogie Nights #41
  2. 2

    Jaylen Brown

    PF/SF/SG · PHI

    28.7 PTS, 6.9 REB, 5.1 AST on 35.1% usage

    Last season's numbers came from carrying an injured team. In Philadelphia he shares the ball with Embiid (33.6% usage) and Maxey (28.6%). Taken around pick 31 on Yahoo, FantasyPros expects him closer to 100 by season's end.

    ADP #31Our projections #33Boogie Nights #31
  3. 3

    Cooper Flagg

    PF/SF/SG · DAL

    Rookie of the Year: 21.0 PTS, 6.7 REB, 4.5 AST

    CBS's model says ADP 10 is too rich. He has to share the ball with a returning Kyrie Irving under new coach Dusty May, and the model ranks him behind Banchero and Anthony Davis.

    Counterpoint: Most points rankings disagree: NBA.com has him 7th and ESPN expects a Year 2 jump.

    ADP #11Our projections #11Boogie Nights #10
  4. 4

    Tyrese Maxey

    PG/SG · PHI

    5th in per-game fantasy value last year · led the league at 38 min · 21.4 FGA

    His volume can only go down with Brown, LeBron and Embiid around him. Rotoworld won't take him before the low 20s.

    ADP #10Our projections #18Boogie Nights #16
  5. 5

    Anthony Davis

    PF/C · WAS

    20 games last season (20.4 PTS, 11.1 REB, 1.7 BLK)

    He has missed 14+ games in 10 of 14 seasons and never played for Washington after the trade. He'll share the ball with Trae Young, AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, and Deandre Ayton was signed as cover.

    Counterpoint: RotoWire notes the games he does play still pay out heavily.

    ADP #34Our projections #20Boogie Nights #20
  6. 6

    Joel Embiid

    C · PHI

    33.6% usage when he plays

    Elite when he's on the floor, but every points ranking now treats him as a high-variance swing, not a cornerstone. Fantrax dropped him from 56 to 80 over load management.

    ADP #52Our projections #51Boogie Nights #59
  7. 7

    Brandon Ingram

    SG/SF/PF · LAC

    May heel surgery revealed a partially torn Achilles

    He'll miss the start of the season with a 3-to-6-month recovery, and rest days are likely once he's back. Fantrax dropped him from 70 to 124, and Fantasy Six Pack says avoid him completely. Our boards already tag him OUT.

    ADP #81Our projections #87Boogie Nights #92
  8. 8

    Ja Morant

    PG · POR

    79 games over the last three seasons · 19.5 PTS, 3.3 REB last year

    He's in a crowded Portland backcourt with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday, and RotoWire's guard preview calls his ADP of 90 too high.

    Counterpoint: The Yahoo points mock disagrees and ranks him 45th, calling pick 86 a value.

    ADP #80Our projections #77Boogie Nights #73
  9. 9

    De'Aaron Fox

    PG/SG · SAS

    Regular season: 18.6 PTS, 6.2 AST · playoffs: about 6 fewer PTS on 34.3% FG

    Dylan Harper outscored him off the bench (18 points on 49%), his ankle may not be fully healed, and he could be traded. ADP around 80.

    ADP #65Our projections #61Boogie Nights #58
  10. 10

    Zion Williamson

    C/PF · NOP

    62 games: 21.0 PTS, 5.7 REB, 0.5 BLK, no threes

    ESPN's Steve Alexander doubts he plays 50 games and says he's drafted on name value. Athlon also flags him as an injury fade.

    Counterpoint: NBA.com/RotoWire list him as a points-league riser because he scores in volume when he plays.

    ADP #60Our projections #42Boogie Nights #44
  11. 11

    Myles Turner

    C · MIL

    11.9 PTS, 5.3 REB (lowest since his rookie year), 44% FG

    His blocks-and-threes profile is built for category leagues. In points leagues he gives you little, and Kel'el Ware is coming for his minutes.

    Counterpoint: RotoBaller calls him a 'boring winner' at Yahoo rank 118.

    ADP #106Our projections #135Boogie Nights #132
  12. 12

    Norman Powell

    SG/SF · CHI

    21.7+ PTS in each of the last two seasons · career highs of 3.7 REB and 2.5 AST

    He's a scorer and nothing else. In points leagues his rebounds and assists are too thin to support his draft price.

    ADP #82Our projections #72Boogie Nights #78
  13. 13

    Stephen Curry

    PG · GSW

    Age 38 · value built on threes and free throws

    Points scoring hands out little extra for the two things that make Curry elite. NBA.com/RotoWire say the discount is justified, but High Score formats are the exception.

    ADP #26Our projections #30Boogie Nights #32
  14. 14

    Franz Wagner

    PF/SF · ORL

    Yahoo ADP 52 · ESPN ADP 71

    He offers few defensive stats and has a history of injuries. Banchero will have the ball more and Jalen Suggs runs the offense, so Fantasy Six Pack sees no path to earning his price.

    Counterpoint: RotoWire's points rankings think his secure role behind Banchero holds up.

    ADP #53Our projections #44Boogie Nights #47

Rank chips: ADP is the FantasyPros consensus (Yahoo + ESPN). 'Our projections' is the average rank on our ESPN, Yahoo and FantasyPros boards under trebevicka23 scoring, and 'Boogie Nights' is the same under Boogie Nights scoring (AST +1.25, STL/BLK +2, PF −0.5). Stats and quotes are from the linked articles; the write-ups are ours. Updated Oct 16, 2026.

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