Ten players going after the seventh round whose counting stats beat their ADP. These are the players several outlets agree on most.
10 playersLeague-Winner PicksPicks with title-swinging upside in points formats. These are mostly volume players whose weak efficiency scares category drafters and whose stats pay out in points leagues.
14 playersLate-Round GemsPick 100 and later: bigs with strong per-minute numbers, starters in new roles and a few stashes. Most points leagues are won or lost in these rounds.
14 playersBusts and FadesPlayers the experts would let someone else draft at their current price. When another outlet makes the counter-argument, we show it too.
DataBy our numbersWhere our league-scoring projections disagree with ADP the most, for both leagues.
22 articlesReading listEvery source article, from ESPN and Yahoo to RotoBaller, Fantrax and CBS's projection model.
Six rules for points leagues
- Volume beats efficiency. FG% and FT% are only a small negative through FGA and FTA, so high-usage players with bad percentages (Banchero, Castle, Giddey) climb.
- Triple-double players are the top archetype: points, rebounds and assists all count in full. Think Jokić, Sengun and Giddey.
- Pure specialists sink. Three-point and block specialists (Curry, Turner, Holmgren, Suggs) lose much of their category value.
- Wait on centers, then move fast. In Yahoo's 12-team points mock, 10 of 18 picks from 62 to 79 were centers.
- Point guard is deep and small forward thins out early (ESPN tiers), so get a wing before round 6.
- Games played is a stat. Points are season totals, so availability (LeBron, Embiid, Zion, AD) matters more than ceiling.
Where the experts split
The most interesting players are the ones the outlets disagree on. Usually it is points formats against category formats.
| Player | The case for | The case against |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | Points: Yahoo's Barner and Aravena make him a top target, since his volume and 27.5%+ usage beat any efficiency penalty. | Categories: FantasyPros and Rotoworld call him a bust because he's elite in no category and costs you FG%, FT% and turnovers. |
| Stephon Castle | Points: NBA.com calls him one of the format's best buys, and a Yahoo mock ranked him 26th. | Categories: Rotoworld fades him for inefficiency and Dylan Harper's emergence. |
| Walker Kessler | CBS's model makes him its top sleeper at ADP 56, and ESPN sees top-40 upside. | RotoWire says blocks and FG% count less in points scoring, so wait until round 4. |
| Jalen Suggs | DraftKings likes his assists and steals at ADP 112. | RotoWire's points rankings say steals, threes and defense translate poorly to points leagues. |
| Myles Turner | RotoBaller calls him a 'boring winner' at Yahoo rank 118. | Yahoo/RotoWire: his blocks and threes don't carry points value, and Ware is coming. |
| Zion Williamson | NBA.com/RotoWire: a points riser thanks to volume scoring. | ESPN and Athlon doubt he reaches 50 games. |
| Cooper Flagg | NBA.com ranks him 7th in points leagues, and ESPN expects a Year 2 leap. | CBS's model says ADP 10 is too high with Kyrie Irving back. |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | Fantasy Six Pack and ESPN's Karabell expect him to take over Morant's role. | RotoWire's guard preview lists him as a bust, and Fantrax projects Ty Jerome to start. |
Rank chips: ADP is the FantasyPros consensus (Yahoo + ESPN). 'Our projections' is the average rank on our ESPN, Yahoo and FantasyPros boards under trebevicka23 scoring, and 'Boogie Nights' is the same under Boogie Nights scoring (AST +1.25, STL/BLK +2, PF −0.5). Stats and quotes are from the linked articles; the write-ups are ours. Updated Oct 16, 2026.